Such a denition indicates neither a thing nor a variable, nor even a thing symbolizing a relationship, but an ability. It is merely a label for a causal relation, an area for inquiry rather than a concept of inquiry. Preeg, E, 1970. UN Security Council resolution 598 of 20 July 1987 demanded a ceasere, which Iraq accepted on condition of Irans acceptance and safe in the belief that it would not be forthcoming; the rejection left Iran isolated diplomatically and hence short of military materiel, with its economic means and its cannon-fodder youth in ever shortening supply. 4989), with sunk costs interpreted in terms of non-material commitment as well as of nances. Filled with exercises, self-assessment tools, examples, and cases, the book links theory to practice and gives readers an opportunity to develop, practice, and perfect their own unique set of negotiation skills. Sometimes this formal encounter is mandated by the agreement, as a review process or periodic meeting of the contracting parties; sometimes it is necessitated by the second element, need for adjustment, or the third, domestic inputs, or the fourth, exogenous events, which require a return to the drawing board; sometimes it is unspecied and therefore needs a clarion call (as provided by Malta in the Law of the Sea) or a convenient anniversary (as seized upon 20 years after UNCHE (UN Conference on the Human Environment) in Stockholm to call to order UNCED in Rio). Sebenius, J, 1984. cf. Thus, the regime is more than simply rules, norms, regulations and behaviors (Krasner 1983); it is the institutionalized effort to shape, monitor and support these outputs, with the understanding that that institutionalization remains inter, and not supranational. 0000008399 00000 n Princeton: Princeton University Press. Where then does the power of weak states lie? Although the end of the Cold War has brought about many changes in international politics, it has neither reduced the incidence of international conicts nor the tendency of thirdparties to mediate those conicts that they nd especially troublesome. Conakry: PDG. 2002). Locke, J, Mill, JS, 1947. A mediator has six sources of leverage: rst, persuasion, the ability to portray an alternative future as more favorable than the continuing conict; second, extraction, the ability to produce an attractive position from each party; third, termination, the ability to withdraw from the mediation; fourth, limitation, the ability to block other alternatives; fth, deprivation, the ability to withhold resources from one side or to shift them to the other; and sixth, gratication, the ability to add resources to the outcome. One of the exciting things about working on the subject of negotiation is that it is a vast eld of discovery, where new concepts, regularities, behaviors and strategies await identication. When a movement sees itself blocked in its achievement of an important goal, it is faced with the decision either to raise or to call, to change and intensify its attack or to seek accommodation at the present level. 17497. On the other hand, the negotiations were typical of a large span of postcolonial and developmental relations; the issues were political as well as economic, and were strongly NorthSouth in nature. Eden, L and Hampson, FO, 1990. 2e Use of public opinion: Souths use of the media in the press-covered and NGO-attended UNCED sessions; Syngman Rhees attempt to take the prisoners issue to public opinion. The mixture of power and interests among the parties translates into different roles which they can play. 278 References Grifths, F, 1989. The Soviet Experience of Arms Control, in Stein, JG (ed. A more literary and intuitive basis for behavioral analysis began with Nicolsons (1939) distinction between Shopkeepers and Warriors. The idea of including missiles only and not Castro, and of accepting no counterpart such as Turkey or Berlin, on the American side, and the idea of extracting a counterpart promise on the invasion of Cuba, on the Soviet side, were parts of the denition of an acceptable formula, which nally appeared in the exchange of letters of 2627 October 1962. In the same Namibian conict, a military escalation and counterescalation in 1987 left the parties locked in a stalemate with the threat or danger of a massive escalation ahead, leading to a mediated conict resolution. Tracy, BH, 1978. Bargaining and Trial and Error: The Case of the Spanish Base Negotiations 196370, in Zartman, IW (ed. If the existing order proves inadequate, the replacement may be not a new order but an absence of set systems, a transition so prolonged as to appear permanent. Since specic encounters mark the formalization of the evolving regime, characteristics of the multilateral negotiation and domestic political processes govern the building of regimes. 48 ff., 54 ff. Clubs are Trumps: Towards a Taxonomy of International Regimes. This decision-making event is a sociopolitical process involving several parties, and not simply one individuals making up their mind. While the verdict seems to have tilted in favor of bipolarity (or now even unipolarity) over multipolarity as the key to stability, there is a tinge of argument to please the court or acquiescence to the current order of things in the analysis. Walton, RE, 1970. A Problem-Solving Workshop on Border Conicts in East Africa, Journal of Applied Behavioral Sciences 6, pp. . A resolving formula is a conict resolution agreement, dealing with the issues of the conict, an enticing opportunity that the parties perceive as a way out of their problem. 1971; Schelling 1966), delayed obligation imposed by a present agreement for future benets is more common. The third is by making one alternative appear to be already chosen, through the use of commitments and obligations. This review, however, suggests that a common understanding the of negotiation process has already developed and analysts are using it. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. A Theory of Justice. The Paris and back channel negotiations were punctuated by US (E) escalations into Cambodia in AprilJune 1970 and Laos in February 1971, and by the North Vietnamese (T) conventional army spring offensive of March 1972 and the US and South Vietnamese counteroffensive to retake Binh Dinh province in July. There is a danger in identifying this factor in such a way that it reies the relationship itself as an actor. Environmental Diplomacy. Also, how will it affect their future relations with the would-be mediator? In another direction, the challenge of knowing how, when and why to negotiate with terrorists, since such negotiations do take place, requires a denitional distinction among types of terrorists and then an application of normal negotiating tactics either lower or change the terms of trade in an unusually difcult situation (Zartman 1990, 2003, 2006; Zartman and Alfredson 2003, Zartman and Faure 2006) (Chapter 15) All of these topics of inquiry seek answers to negotiation puzzles by sharpening old concepts and creating new ones, developing them inductively and testing them deductively on cases and applications. Negotiation is the mode of decision-making where the default decision rule is unanimity and therefore the parties are equal, that is, each has a veto. In this lies a signicant difference between interstate and intrastate conicts. Does it reect the nature of negotiation as found in the majority of real cases? ), 1987b. When the obstacle to agreement is the seemingly paltry size of the outcome, the mediator must persuade the parties of its vision of a solution; it must then take measures to make that solution attractive, enhancing its value by adding benets to its outcome and presenting it in such a way as to overcome imbalances that may have prevented one of the parties from subscribing to it. If the mediators can show how continued or renewed violence would lose a party international respect and support, the violence can be kept at the threat level in case of failure rather than at the actual level during negotiations. Analyze the conflict 2. From both denitions, it is clear that the nature of the activity lies not in conducting the combined search for a or the solution but in arriving at and in convincing the other party to arrive at, the conclusion that some joint solution is possible. A quick review of cases show both internal and external reasons that are evident only when the process itself is examined. Randle, R, 1973. Hopmann, PT and Smith, TC, 1978. An Application of the Richardson Process Model: Soviet-American Interactions in the Test-Ban Process, in Zartman (ed. Such values are things that matter to the parties and may be positive or negative, as benets and costs. Michels, R, 1962. Ethnic voting blocs must be broken by crosscutting, interest-aggregating parties if they are to avoid becoming permanent ethnic majorities, yet political parties tend to become vehicles for ethnic voting blocs. Negotiation has been characterized as involving an initial disorder the dispute and an endeavor to reach an order the settlement (Gulliver 1977, p. 21). ), 1995, 1996, 2005. Prenegotiation is a purposive period of transition that enables parties to move from conicting perceptions and behaviors (unilateral attempts at solutions) to cooperative perceptions and behaviors. Hobbes, T. (1998[1651]) The Leviathan. The approach tells what to look for and where to look, and it ags the important procedural element of the negotiations process. But it is, after all, the possibility of revived combat that keeps the implementation process on track, just as it was the presence of armed rebellion that brought the conict to negotiation in the rst place. 1999 (note 15); Raiffa et al. Power and negotiation Negotiation is joint decision-making under conditions of conict and uncertainty, combining divergent positions into a single outcome. Instead of the static picture, we propose to substitute an image continually in motion or evolution through negotiation, negotiations on an initial agreement followed by post-agreement negotiations (PAN), with parties sporadically negotiating both with other parties to the regime and within their own domestic and intraparty levels. Another standard way of dening power is to relate it to resources, leading to the neo-realist view of power as a possession (Organski 1968; Knorr 1970). Relations between perception and reality and increases in the efciency of perception are yet further issues to be developed Functions All these questions and hypotheses, and others that ow from them, have both an explanatory and a practical value. The idea of an ultimate instrument governed thereafter by pacta servanda sunt is a notion of a bygone era. When a simple principle is inadequate, negotiators may seek compound justice, by matching principles so that one party is allowed equity to govern one issue if the other party gets compensation in another. And most importantly, when can negotiations take place just anytime or at specic, identiable moments during a conict (Chapters 2, 11 and 14)? The sharia issue in Sudan, Turkish army occupation and settler implantation in Cyprus, and language enclaves in Macedonia and Sri Lanka all appeared and became salient as the conict worsened without resolution. At rst glance, it might appear that such territorial negotiations in which two incompatible concepts on a new withdrawal line were brought gradually into coincidence would be prime instances of concession/convergence. While process fairness is a substitute for outcome fairness in some social encounters, these tend to be limited to situations (such as having ones day in court) where justice is 74 Negotiations in concept guaranteed by authority and inherent in the process, and where winning rather than reconciling is the outcome, as in adjudication rather than negotiation (Raiffa l982; Brams 1990; Prasniker and Roth 1992; Albin 1997). This book examines Arab approaches to mediation, negotiation and settlement of political disputes. Gerth, HH and Mills, CW (eds), 1946. When the parties perceive themselves to be equal but challenge that perception or feel that 76 Negotiations in concept it is in question, however, they spend more effort in defending their status in symmetry than in reaching an equal distribution of outcomes (Zartman and Rubin 2000). These steps are: 1. Berkeley: University of California Press. In so doing, it seeks to exercise power over the other party. But it also removes or at least reduces the element of challenge in the threat and conrms the presence of a way out of the conict. A mutually hurting stalemate begins when one side realizes that it is unable to achieve its aims, resolve the problem, or win the conict by itself; it is completed when the other side reaches a similar conclusion. This is a very preliminary study, designed to document the importance of the topic and indicate research directions. It then took a more active role, moving militarily to force the ethnic rebels to acquiesce in a solution close to the Tamils own demands. And it is a catalyst to thinking negotiation rather than withdrawal (by both sides) because it represents a major increment of sunk costs, both material and psychological, that prohibits out and out withdrawal and favors recuperating at least some benets through negotiation. 2000. Frustrated Asymmetry in US-Egyptian Aid Negotiations in Zartman, IW and Rubin, JZ (eds), 2000. by . Similarly, the threats that the strong used took the form of the take-itor-leave-it packages with which the weak were presented. Analysts have repeatedly and variously noted that the presumed egalitarian status necessary for free choice by individual voters is negated by the inegalitarian status of the ascriptive blocs to which they belong and also by achievemental effects on attitudes, participation and choice, bringing a reexamination of the new relevance of classical solutions to both aspects of the rigidity problem, ranging from proportional representation to gerrymandering (Dahl 1993; Guinier 1994). Sovereignty as Responsibility. Conict is not necessarily chaos, any more than the opposite of any particular form of order is not disorder. We Need a Larger Theory of Negotiation: The Importance of Pre-Negotiating Phases, Negotiation Journal 1:3, p. 250. 1985b. The Third World Group of 77 (G-77), the Neutral and Non-Aligned Movement (NNAM), and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), among others, are examples. 293310. Introduction 9 This collection documents the evolution of some of these concepts formula, ripeness, prenegotiation/diagnosis, mediation, power, process, intractability, escalation, order, and others and of a richer understanding of negotiation. Like the range of alternatives, the number of participants to an agreement has to be judged carefully, lest there not be enough of them to create a lasting settlement. Is mediation negotiation? They provide substantive as well as procedural elements to meet the parties needs, interests and demands, but they also need to be supported by external incentives to stay on track, and external constraints not to stray off track, in comparison with the status quo of the conict. Hoboken, NJ: Jossey-Bass. During this process, negotiations also move through different levels, normally from principles through questions and answers to details. Proof of such statements would have to lie in logic rather than in empirical testing, because of the difculties of comparison, but even on that basis a case could be made for the usefulness of regimes to the negotiation process (Krasner 1983; Axelrod 1984). Perspectives on Deterrence. The academics question What causes A? is the mirror image of the policy-makers question what will happen if I do B? and the same as the latters question How can I help bring about A? An answer to any of them is a step to answering the others. Evaluate the consequences of conflict. Druckman 1977; Tracy 1978). Berdal, M and Malone, D, 2000. At the beginning of December, UNITA and the South African Defense Force (E) launched their twelfth annual campaign into, a more intense escalation than previous efforts. Duke University Press. In reaction to the inadequacies of the diplomatic principles The study of negotiation 15 approach, there has been a recent spurt of effort to analyze bargaining through the use of game theory and matrix methodology (Rapoport 1960, 1966; Schelling 1960; Midgaard 1968). 6678; Touval 1982; Zartman 1983, 1989, 2000; Touval and Zartman 1989; Hopmann 1996). Use of intermediaries: the Souths use of the secretariat and the conference chair to provide a procedural buffer in dealing with the North; Egypts efforts to bring in the US as biased mediator to deliver an Israeli agreement. It is a profound misunderstanding of the regime-building process to believe that it is merely a matter of legislation and compliance. But the mediators were not simply soft on Negotiating with terrorists 253 terrorists: they worked on the extremists to fulll the conditions helpful to the terrorists being accepted as negotiation partners. But in the search for a formula, and in the maintenance of that formula during the search for details, force, coercion, and persuasion did contribute to the process by modifying or supporting such elements as territorial referents, credibility, deadlines, and the weights given to the component elements of the agreement. For example, if one party (the agent) prevails over another (the target), does that mean that the target had no power? Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press. . (Khrushchev 1970, pp. Such demarches are obviously best timed when the escalation fails, or arrives at either a call or a shortfall. American Bar Association. An alternative outcome that is at the same time more standard and more suspect is that of regional autonomy. Second, studies on escalation and negotiation need to develop a higher degree of resolution, along many dimensions. The structural power model explains the distribution of shares in negotiated outcomes as the result of the distribution of power among the parties (Habeeb 1988; Rubin and Zartman 1995). 1996]). Walker). 3961. While a party acting alone would most likely adopt a self-serving notion of justice (I deserve the goods), the fact that it has to negotiate means that winning outright is not an option and a different notion of justice is needed; all things being equal, equality is the most frequently-held norm (I deserve to do at least as much as you). The nal convergence points in the Yaound set were closer to the Europeans initial positions than to the Africans, whereas in the Lagos set convergence was not far from the Nigerians position and not far from the Europeans either; in the second case, however, the range of positions was narrower than in the rst. Again, the model could be Negotiaton as a joint decision-making process 61 stretched to t: if the stalemate occurred because both sides insisted on negotiated victory on their terms, concessions on both sides provided an intermediate position nally agreeable to both sides. . Where equality is desired but cannot or need not be determined, a looser form known as equivalent justice is often used. Pages 308 The methods of violence themselves make atrocities, reprisals and resentment a further grievance to add to those that require and resist reconciliation and resolution from the beginning, as the longstanding conicts in Sri Lanka, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Angola and Mozambique show. Conceptually, these efforts are shaped by justice, as the basis of the future ideal, and by power, as the past determinant of reality, and so justice and power become basic elements in the process of negotiation that characterizes the transition. Terrorist suiciders are absolute terrorists, and so are beyond negotiation, and probably even beyond dissuasion, unlike non-terrorist suicides, whose end is without broader purpose and is not intended to inuence behavior beyond their own. Unless a nonsolution is actually painful, it may constitute a viable situation that leaves the future open, creates no pressure for a search for a solution, and requires no risky decision. The standard strategic models Prisoners Dilemma Game (PDG) and Chicken Dilemma Game (CDG) are symmetrical and therefore incorporate the same assumption of equality as found in structural analysis. It is held here that regimes do matter and states (that is, decisionmakers acting in the name of states) do modify their behavior in function of the engagements taken within regimes, including behavior designed to reduce the amount of behavior regimes modify. Genesis 18:1633. In the Middle East, Israel and the PLO were painfully stalemated, not in Palestine but in the Madrid Talks in Washington, and needed a way to meet their own campaign pledges and to face the common external enemy, Hamas, the real terrorist (Pruitt 1997). The CMD - M constitution regards issues of conflict management as one of the most fundamental objectives of the Centre. Social Revolutions in the Modern World. Hence negotiation has a role to play in three acts in the prologue, when the conict is merely an issue or a problem, to prevent it from getting worse; during the conict if the rst has failed, to provide solutions and resolutions; and in the crisis, if the rst two have failed, to bring the escalation and violence to an end. Do unequal power sources (as an estimate or as resources) produce dissimilar behaviors (as action) yielding unequal results? Finding the answer to How? depends on a further breakdown of analytical questions, and leads to an investigation of power in the context of negotiation, since the combining of divergent viewpoints is an exercise in the process of affecting the policies of others with the help of (actual or threatened) . In any negotiating situation, each side believes that it represents the just solution, that the best outcome in a perfect world would be the adoption of its position, and that negotiation and compromise are necessary in the rst place only because the forces of error, if not of evil, have enough power to prevent true justice from being enacted. London: Elsevier. Brookings. The internal settlement marked the attempt of some nationalist leaders to take advantage of the moment to grab the benets of a solution for themselves or, in other words, to split. It may even unite the two adversaries in opposition to the mediator; for example, in the Yemen civil war (196270) the two sides resolved their differences in order to oppose Egyptian interference, when Egypt was acting more as an intervenor than as a mediator. This second source of leverage is the most problematic, yet it is the basis of all mediation. It has been possible to advance a few propositions by using the concepts, alternatives, convergence, and symmetry/asymmetry. Clearly, these have not led far toward a comprehensive theory of negotiations, but, hopefully, they have opened a path of some usefulness and greater promise. Regimes are quite different from many other types of negotiated agreements in that they are not simply negotiation outcomes, processed and led, but are ongoing agreements moving through time. New Haven: Yale University Press. In the Lagos negotiations, concessions and counterconcessions were more equally balanced, coincidence more frequent, the need for compromise arose less often, and the negotiations were basically deductive in nature. . It is interesting that they are often willing to try negotiations at that point because it enables them to stay in control, whereas major escalation poses the danger of a new leadership, as all four of the aforementioned examples indicate. Even more striking was the fact that the mediators also clung to a principle of priority justice, rejecting any notion of division, exchange or sharing. Mohr. Only then can the host envisage a helpful role in negotiations. One involves a transition from one order of things to another. 50016. (Sometimes, commitments and obligations can serve as reference points, when there is agreement, not on their merits, but simply on their presence and the need to respect them.) If they fail and are swept aside, they may well have helped clear the way for a more lasting solution by eliminating an option that at least seemed attractive to some. Social Behavior. By September, the Iraqi springsummer offensive had captured almost every Kurdish town, provoking a large Kurdish refugee ow across the border, and most of the Iranian supply routes had been closed. With all these caveats and with the problem of the shifting levels of analysis mentioned earlier taken into consideration, what value is left in the convergence approach? It is useful, therefore, to turn to the concept of order itself, its meaning and its types, in order then to proceed with an analysis of current issues involving order at the edge of the millennium, and nally to address the question of universality within the concept and its issue applications. Idealized situations of pure strategy can produce indirect insights of great value, but their very idealization (or theoretical nature) removes the element that makes them directly applicable to negotiations. The primary concern is over absolute costs, or over absolute costs relative to ones own uncertain gains. Third, direct data are often not available, only indicators, sometimes termed proxies. It is the addition of the other two factors, system maintenance and cybernetic loops, that distinguishes the two approaches. The Functions of International Law. Diplomatic academies have only occasional courses in negotiation, believing that skill only comes by doing and that good doers have untransmittable skills. Beyond the decolonization, therefore, experience tells very little about how to negotiate secession. These vignettes can be either dismissed as images dEpinal or endlessly debated and diagnosed as clashing civilizations, as can no doubt the whole area of political (or any other) culture (Huntington 1996). (In addition, there is a subcategory of negotiations in which one partys aims are to deny the adversary a particular payoff rather than to get as much as possible for itself, making positive-sum evaluations more complex). ), 1994. International Multilateral Negotiation: Approaches to the Management of Complexity. Self-interested motivation holds for superpowers, medium-sized powers, and international organizations. Foucault, M, 1984. Competing paradigms such as liberalism and constructivism have more room for both but have done little to fold negotiation into their premises. Yet, as noted, at some point even warriors must negotiate, as they did in Zimbabwe and the south Philippines (the Moro rebellion in 1976), even though it splits their ranks, as it did in Sri Lanka and Sudan. The tension between the effectiveness of implied losses and the need for positive compensations and constructions to produce an MEO underscores the narrow eld of play open to those who would prepare an attractive resolving formula, and deserves further investigation. Allison, GT, 1971. Lessons Learned from the Middle East Peace Process. For these reasons, a determinate outcome is 66 Negotiations in concept conceptually impossible, both the concession/convergence and the formula/detail approach.
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